In 2021, the UPD team at Wellcome commissioned freelance data consultant and author Gavin Freeguard to undertake a project centred around a long-form journalistic piece setting out how the R number - extensively used in public policy-making and public discourse during the covid-19 pandemic - was developed and used. This would include its data sources, limitations or caveats, and how it influenced/informed major public health decisions. In doing so, it would illustrate key themes in how data is used, including ethical considerations and standards, and making often obscure technical debates more tangible.
With the transfer of UPD from Wellcome to NHS Confederation, publication of the piece was postponed. However, we are pleased that we were eventually able to work in partnership with Significance to publish the piece in their bimonthly journal issues throughout 2024. This meant that every other month there was a new section of Gavin’s work in the Significance journal. Breaking it down in this way supported Gavin’s vision of chronicling “the birth of the R number” right from its inception all the way through to lessons we can learn from it beyond Covid-19.
Unlike our other resources, this is an opinion piece, which means it is not intended to represent the views of Understanding Patient Data, but rather those of Gavin Freeguard as the author. We would like to thank Gavin for undertaking the project and being patient with its publication, and to Significance for accepting it for publication.
Part 1: History
In Part 1, Gavin explores the history of the R number, how this epidemiological number came to dominate our discourse, how useful it is, and where it comes from.
Read Part 1: History here
Part 2: Modelling
In Part 2, Gavin describes how different modelling groups in the UK used different data sources and assumptions to try to understand Covid-19 infection rates, and how this diversity proved to be a strength rather than a weakness.
Read Part 2: Modelling here
Part 3: Media
In Part 3, Gavin discusses the emergence of the R number in the media, how it was reported, and how it was used in government communications.
Read Part 3: Media here
Part 4: Politics
In Part 4, Gavin explore to what degree, and for how long, did R influence government policy and decision-making in the UK.
Read Part 4: Politics here
Part 5: What did we learn?
In Part 5, Gavin proposes whether the R number should have been part of a broader use of data rather than the sole focus, whether we need a better balance of science and politics in government, and about the investment we put into data outside of pandemics to better support us when they do happen.
Read Part 5: What did we learn? here